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UNEP Releases 2023 Emissions Gap Report

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The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) recently published its annual emissions gap report: Emission Gap Report 2023: Broken Record (the Report). The Report provides an assessment of the gap between pledged and actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and is published annually in the lead-up to the UN Climate Change Conference. COP 28, set to start Thursday in Dubai, will mark the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, which is very likely to acknowledge that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The UNEP Report highlights the need for immediate implementation of solutions to the emissions problem. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement represents a viable mechanism to channel capital at the levels required in the time available. The Public Policy Forum, together with Resilient LLP and the International Emissions Trading Association, released a report last week titled The Missing Article: How to get Canada back in the game on Article 6. This bulletin briefly summarizes the key findings of the Report. The emissions gap in 2030 remains high. The Report indicates that current unconditional NDCs result in a 14 GtCO2e gap for a 2°C goal and a 22 GtCO2e gap for the 1.5°C goal. Full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs would reduce these estimates by 3 GtCO2e.   Figure: GHG emissions under different scenarios and the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035 Source: UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2023, Figure 4.2   Likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C remains low. The Report found that there is only a 14% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C and that current policies are likely to see temperature rise by 3°C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, implementing all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030…

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Supervisory Body Publishes Recommendations for Methodologies and Removals Under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement

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The Article 6.4 Supervisory Body (SB) has published guidance on activities involving removals under the Article 6.4 mechanism of the Paris Agreement (the Removals Guidance). The SB also published recommendations on the requirements for the development and assessment of Article 6.4 mechanism methodologies (the Methodology Requirements). Both recommendations will be presented for consideration and adoption by the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) at COP 28 starting later this month in Dubai, UAE. This bulletin highlights key information, guidance, and requirements provided by the SB in both the Removals Guidance and the Methodology Requirements. Removals Guidance Recommendation The Removals Guidance defines removals as the outcomes of processes to remove GHGs from the atmosphere through anthropogenic activities and destroy or durably store them. Requirements. The Removals Guidance provides the following requirements for activities involving removals under the Article 6.4 mechanism: Monitoring. Activity participants must monitor removals through appropriate application of quantification and estimation based on field measurements, remote sensing, measurement through instrumentation, and/or modelling. Post-crediting period monitoring, reporting, and remediation of reversals. Activity participants must undertake monitoring, reporting, verification, and remediation measures during the post-crediting monitoring period to confirm the continued existence of removals and to address any reversals of removals for which 6.4 carbon credits (6.4ERs) were issued during the active crediting period(s). The SB noted that 6.4ERs will not be issued for removals generated after the last active crediting period, including during the post-crediting monitoring period. Reporting. Activity participants must prepare monitoring reports after implementing monitoring operations and methods. These reports are to be prepared without a gap between two successive monitoring periods. The SB noted that methodologies will contain provisions specifying the minimum frequency of monitoring report submission, commensurate with the degree and nature of the risk of reversals. Accounting for removals. Removals eligible for crediting must exceed the applicable baseline determined in accordance with the Methodology Requirements and will be…

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UNFCCC Secretariat Releases Concept Note on Carbon Removals under Article 6.4

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The UNFCCC Secretariat has released a concept note on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activities under the Article 6.4 Mechanism (the Concept Note), published as an annex to the annotated agenda of the first meeting of the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body (SB) taking place beginning today in Bonn, Germany. This bulletin provides a brief summary of the Concept Note. Alongside the Concept Note, the UNFCCC Secretariat also released draft rules of procedure for the SB and concept notes on SB work in 2022-2023, its support structure, share of proceeds, and guidelines on baselines and additionality. Overview. The Concept Note is the first step in the SB’s work to develop recommendations for CDR and includes analysis of possible CDR activities under the Article 6.4 Mechanism, including CDR monitoring, reporting, accounting, crediting periods and issues relating to addressing reversals, avoidance of leakage, and avoidance of other negative environmental and social impacts. We anticipate that CDR will be given particular attention at COP 27 set to take place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt this November and note that the SB is due to make recommendations on CDR in advance of the COP. Key issues and analysis. The Concept Note provides analysis on the following key issues: Types of CDR activities. The Concept Note defines CDR as “anthropogenic activities that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and ensure its long-term storage in terrestrial, geological, or ocean reservoirs, or in long-lasting products” and acknowledges that CDR cannot serve as a substitute for deep emissions reductions, but can fulfil multiple complementary roles (including near-term reductions, addressing residual emissions from ‘hard-to-transition’ sectors, and achieving and sustaining net-negative in the long-term). The Concept Note breaks CDR out into the following categories: Afforestation and reforestation (A/R) and revegetation; Sustainable forest management;  Wetlands restoration and re-wetting;  Agroforestry; Urban forestry; Soil organic carbon enhancement in croplands…

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UNFCCC Secretariat Publishes Informal Reports on Article 6.2

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The UNFCCC Secretariat today published informal reports on the technical workshops on Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement that were held virtually between May 16 and 19, 2022. The technical workshops were held further to the Article 6.2 Guidance on cooperative approaches agreed at COP 26 in November 2021. The technical workshops focused on Article 6.2 reporting rules and related infrastructure requirements, which are expected to influence how countries operationalize Article 6 through domestic legislation. Two informal reports and three supporting slide decks were published on the following topics:  Tables and outlines for reporting required Article 6.2 information (informal report): Outlines for the initial report and regular information annex to the biennial transparency report (slide deck); and Agreed electronic format for annual information (slide deck) Options for implementing Article 6 infrastructure requirements (informal report): Registries and the international registry; The Article 6 database; and Centralized accounting and reporting platform (slide deck). The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) will consider the outcomes of the technical workshops at its intersessional meetings set to take place in Bonn between June 6 and 16, 2022. The SBSTA is then expected to forward its recommendations for consideration and adoption at COP 27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, now set to begin one day earlier, on November 6, and run until November 18, 2022. For further information or to discuss the contents of this bulletin, please contact Lisa DeMarco at lisa@resilientllp.com.

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Climate Finance Momentum Builds in Lead-up to COP 26

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COP Presidency Publishes Climate Finance Delivery Plan The UK COP26 Presidency yesterday published the long-awaited Climate Finance Delivery Plan (the Delivery Plan) led by Canadian Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and German State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth. The Delivery Plan seeks to provide clarity on the commitment by developed countries to provide $100 billion in climate finance per year. The Delivery Plan is informed by recent OECD analysis to 2025, which indicates that by 2023 the $100 billion per year goal will be met and the mobilization of funds for climate finance is likely to surpass $100 billion each year afterwards. The Delivery Plan provides ten key actions that should be taken by developed countries to deliver on the $100 billion pledge, including: Increasing the scale of climate finance; Increasing finance for adaptation; Prioritizing grant-based financing for the poorest and most vulnerable; Addressing barriers in accessing climate finance; Strengthening the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement; Working with multilateral development banks to increase and improve climate finance; Improving the effectiveness of private finance mobilized; Reporting on collective progress transparently; Assessing and building on lessons learned; and Taking into account the broader financial transition needed to implement Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement (making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development). In 2009, developed countries first pledged to mobilize $100 billion in climate finance annually by 2020. This goal was reaffirmed under the Paris Agreement in 2015. In June 2021, Canada pledged to double its international climate finance commitment to $5.3 billion. Germany has pledged to increase its climate finance to €6 billion per year by 2025. RBC Releases Canada Net-Zero Transition Report RBC recently released a report titled “The $2 Trillion Transition: Canada’s Road to Net Zero” (the Report), which analyzes the opportunities and…

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