The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) yesterday published a new report, Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return (the Report), examining the implications of exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. The Report notes that global warming is now projected to reach at least 1.8°C and argues that climate policy must increasingly address not only whether 1.5°C is exceeded, but by how much and for how long. UNEP indicated that limiting the overshoot and peak, while pursuing pathways capable of bringing temperatures back down, will be critical to reducing climate risks and preserving future options for adaptation. This bulletin briefly summarizes the following key findings and pathways to respond to the global temperature overshoot set out in the Report: Overshoot is a pathway, not a moment. UNEP describes an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the best remaining option to return global temperatures to or below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The pathway depends on minimizing peak warming through rapid and sustained greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, reaching net-zero, and ultimately achieving net-negative emissions. The Report notes that lower peak warming and a shorter period above 1.5°C would reduce climate risks and impacts and improve the prospects of bringing temperatures back down. Going above 1.5°C must not mean abandoning the goal. UNEP states that global temperature rise is likely to cross 1.5°C within the next few years and that there are “no good outcomes” from remaining above that level. Risks intensify with every fraction of a degree and include more severe extreme weather, damage to food and water systems, ecosystem loss, and the possibility of crossing difficult or irreversible tipping points. Adaptation and mitigation must happen hand-in-hand. The Report emphasizes that mitigation and adaptation are interconnected and must advance together. Weak mitigation will increase climate impacts and adaptation needs,…
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) recently published its annual emissions gap report: Emission Gap Report 2023: Broken Record (the Report). The Report provides an assessment of the gap between pledged and actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and is published annually in the lead-up to the UN Climate Change Conference. COP 28, set to start Thursday in Dubai, will mark the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, which is very likely to acknowledge that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The UNEP Report highlights the need for immediate implementation of solutions to the emissions problem. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement represents a viable mechanism to channel capital at the levels required in the time available. The Public Policy Forum, together with Resilient LLP and the International Emissions Trading Association, released a report last week titled The Missing Article: How to get Canada back in the game on Article 6. This bulletin briefly summarizes the key findings of the Report. The emissions gap in 2030 remains high. The Report indicates that current unconditional NDCs result in a 14 GtCO2e gap for a 2°C goal and a 22 GtCO2e gap for the 1.5°C goal. Full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs would reduce these estimates by 3 GtCO2e. Figure: GHG emissions under different scenarios and the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035 Source: UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2023, Figure 4.2 Likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C remains low. The Report found that there is only a 14% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C and that current policies are likely to see temperature rise by 3°C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, implementing all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030…
