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U.S. Submits New NDC Setting Emission Reduction Target of 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035

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The United States today submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (“NDC”) under the Paris Agreement to the UN Climate Change secretariat. The updated NDC sets an economy-wide target of reducing net greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions by 61-66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035 (the “Target”). The Target increases ambition from the previous target of 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, and provides a pathway to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025, is widely expected to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on the first day of his new administration. Many observers are consequently treating the new NDC as mostly symbolic. See our earlier analysis on U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement here.   This bulletin briefly summarizes key details of the NDC and the Biden-Harris Administration’s Fact Sheet on the Target.   Net-zero by 2050. The Target aligns with President Joe Biden’s goal of a net zero GHG economy no later than 2050, with the 61-66% range on a “straight line or steeper trajectory to net zero emissions by 2050 for all greenhouse gases.”   Article 6. The NDC is very light on international cooperation through now-finalized rules of international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Notably, however, the new NDC omits language included in the last U.S. NDC, which indicated that the U.S. did “not intend to use voluntary cooperation using cooperative approaches referred to in Article 6.2 or the mechanism referred to in Article 6.4 in order to achieve its target.”   Methane and other emissions. The updated NDC does not set sub-targets for individual GHGs; however, as part of achieving the Target, it is anticipated that methane emissions will also be reduced by at least 35% from 2005 levels by 2035. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) provides…

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World Bank Group Releases Template Article 6 LOA and Related Guidance

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Resilient LLP is pleased to share that the World Bank Group has today released guidance on Letters of Authorization and Acknowledgement as part of its Article 6 Approach Paper Series. The guidance includes a Letter of Authorization that provides a common template intended to be used for all authorizations to be granted under Articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. The Letter of Authorization is intended to be used with schedules that may be specified by each country and includes illustrative terms and conditions that are most likely to maximize investment and value for the country. It also allows each country to actively choose whether a project is intended to be authorized (subject to corresponding adjustments and a Letter of Authorization) or outside the scope of authorization (ideally subject to a Letter of Acknowledgement in order to increase certainty and corresponding investment value). A template Letter of Acknowledgement is also provided. This common template (with schedules) is intended to simplify the process for authorization, reduce transaction costs, and allow flexibility for bilateral arrangements. The guidance also includes a template Letter of Authorization developed by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), which presents illustrative terms that are conducive to facilitating insurance for breach of a Letter of Authorization.   For further information or to discuss the contents of this bulletin, please contact Lisa DeMarco at lisa@resilientllp.com.

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Biden-Harris Administration Announces Principles for High-Integrity Voluntary Carbon Markets

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The Biden-Harris Administration (the Administration) today released the Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM) Joint Policy Statement and Principles (the Principles), along with an accompanying fact sheet (the Fact Sheet). The Principles represent the U.S. government’s affirmation that high-integrity VCMs can and should play a meaningful role in reducing and removing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and support the objective of global net-zero emissions by 2050. The Principles support the Administration’s commitment to ensuring VCMs effectively channel private capital into innovative technological and nature-based solutions, while also protecting natural ecosystems and supporting the U.S. and international partners in achieving their climate objectives.   The Principles follow other key U.S. climate-related legislation and policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act (see our earlier bulletin here), climate adaptation and resilience plans for federal agencies (see our earlier bulletin here), and the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Principles for Net-Zero Financing and Investment, released last year, supporting the development and execution of strong net-zero commitments and transition plans by financial institutions, with a focus on Scope 3 financed and facilitated GHG emissions.   This bulletin briefly summarizes the Principles, their anticipated role in addressing climate change, and other ongoing U.S. government actions to support VCMs.    Principles for high-integrity VCMs. The Principles provide seven principles for high-integrity VCMs, drawing from existing best practices for credit certification standards, including the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), the G7’s Principles for High-Integrity Carbon Markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s proposed guidance regarding the listing of voluntary carbon credit derivative contracts (December 2023), the Integrity Council for Voluntary Carbon Markets (ICVCM) Core Carbon Principles (see our earlier bulletin here), and relevant decisions under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The Principles are as follows: Carbon credits and the activities that generate them should meet credible atmospheric integrity standards and represent real decarbonization. Credit-generating activities should avoid environmental and social harm and should, where applicable, support…

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Guyana Announces World’s First Credits Eligible for Use for CORSIA

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The Government of Guyana and Architecture for REDD+ Transactions (ART) have announced the world’s first carbon credits eligible for use under the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). ART issued 7.14 million vintage 2021 carbon credits to Guyana under The REDD+ Environmental Excellence Standard (TREES), marking the first issuance of Paris Agreement correspondingly adjusted units reported to the UNFCCC. ART indicated that the credits will be eligible for the first phase of CORSIA (2024-2026), enabling airlines to use them towards their emission reduction targets under the program. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. ART indicated that the TREES credits were issued to Guyana for reducing emissions from forest loss and degradation and maintaining one of the world’s most intact tropical forests as part of a jurisdictional REDD+ program. In addition, the Government of Guyana authorized the credits to be used for a range of compliance and voluntary purposes pursuant Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. As such, Guyana’s authorization for the use of the credits and its reporting of a corresponding adjustment to the UNFCCC enabled ART to label the credits as “CORSIA Eligible” on its public registry. Guyana is now the first country in the world to report a corresponding adjustment to the UNFCCC as a result of its authorization for the international transfer of emission reduction credits or internationally transferred mitigation outcomes under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement.  CORSIA. CORSIA requires airlines from participating countries with annual emissions over 10,000 tonnes of CO2 to monitor and report their emissions. Airlines may use carbon credits to offset any remaining emissions that exceed a percentage of their 2019 baseline emissions. ART and the America Carbon Registry are currently the only crediting programs that have been approved by ICAO to supply credits for…

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UNEP Releases 2023 Emissions Gap Report

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The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) recently published its annual emissions gap report: Emission Gap Report 2023: Broken Record (the Report). The Report provides an assessment of the gap between pledged and actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and is published annually in the lead-up to the UN Climate Change Conference. COP 28, set to start Thursday in Dubai, will mark the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, which is very likely to acknowledge that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The UNEP Report highlights the need for immediate implementation of solutions to the emissions problem. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement represents a viable mechanism to channel capital at the levels required in the time available. The Public Policy Forum, together with Resilient LLP and the International Emissions Trading Association, released a report last week titled The Missing Article: How to get Canada back in the game on Article 6. This bulletin briefly summarizes the key findings of the Report. The emissions gap in 2030 remains high. The Report indicates that current unconditional NDCs result in a 14 GtCO2e gap for a 2°C goal and a 22 GtCO2e gap for the 1.5°C goal. Full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs would reduce these estimates by 3 GtCO2e.   Figure: GHG emissions under different scenarios and the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035 Source: UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2023, Figure 4.2   Likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C remains low. The Report found that there is only a 14% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C and that current policies are likely to see temperature rise by 3°C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, implementing all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030…

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