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COP Presidency Publishes Climate Finance Delivery Plan The UK COP26 Presidency yesterday published the long-awaited Climate Finance Delivery Plan (the Delivery Plan) led by Canadian Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and German State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth. The Delivery Plan seeks to provide clarity on the commitment by developed countries to provide $100 billion in climate finance per year. The Delivery Plan is informed by recent OECD analysis to 2025, which indicates that by 2023 the $100 billion per year goal will be met and the mobilization of funds for climate finance is likely to surpass $100 billion each year afterwards. The Delivery Plan provides ten key actions that should be taken by developed countries to deliver on the $100 billion pledge, including: Increasing the scale of climate finance; Increasing finance for adaptation; Prioritizing grant-based financing for the poorest and most vulnerable; Addressing barriers in accessing climate finance; Strengthening the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement; Working with multilateral development banks to increase and improve climate finance; Improving the effectiveness of private finance mobilized; Reporting on collective progress transparently; Assessing and building on lessons learned; and Taking into account the broader financial transition needed to implement Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement (making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development). In 2009, developed countries first pledged to mobilize $100 billion in climate finance annually by 2020. This goal was reaffirmed under the Paris Agreement in 2015. In June 2021, Canada pledged to double its international climate finance commitment to $5.3 billion. Germany has pledged to increase its climate finance to €6 billion per year by 2025. RBC Releases Canada Net-Zero Transition Report RBC recently released a report titled “The $2 Trillion Transition: Canada’s Road to Net Zero” (the Report), which analyzes the opportunities and…

The Canadian Institute for Climate Choices today released its timely report “Sink or Swim: Transforming Canada’s economy for a global low-carbon future” (the Report). The Report is the first of its kind in Canada and is critical in prudent planning in a rapidly changing global economy that directly affects Canadians, Canadian companies, and Canadian exports. The Report moves from qualitative transition paradigms and platitudes to quantified realities for Canadian business, workers, and communities as the world rapidly progresses in its transition to a decarbonized global economy. The key findings and recommendations of the Report follow.   Findings   Net zero emissions. The Report indicates growing support for net zero emissions by 2050, currently including economies representing over 60% of the world’s GDP and over 50% of global emissions, and that an ambitious low-carbon transition will cost less than inaction. We expect that number to increase dramatically at or around the upcoming UNFCCC COP26 negotiations during the first two weeks of November.   Canadian exports and jobs are at risk. Approximately 70% of Canadian exports and 60% of foreign direct investment come from transition-vulnerable sectors, with over 800,000 Canadian workers in these sectors. Alberta has the highest percentage of workers in transition-vulnerable sectors whereas Ontario has the highest absolute numbers in such sectors. Transition-vulnerable sectors include: mining and mineral products;  downstream and midstream oil and gas; auto manufacturing and parts; chemical, plastic, and rubber materials; airlines; oil and gas exploration and productions; and high-carbon power. Private finance. Canadian companies listed on the TSX are more exposed to transition risks than other major international stock markets and are facing a -14% market capitalization impact by 2050.   Transition opportunity. Industries best positioned to profit from the transition include those associated with biofuels, batteries and storage, fuel cells, and solar and wind equipment. The Report notes…

Canada yesterday filed its update to its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat. The updated NDC commits Canada to reduce GHG emissions by its previously announced target of 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Canada’s emissions reduction ambitions under the NDC are supported by the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change and Canada’s strengthened climate plan: A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy (read our earlier bulletin on the plan here) as well as the various climate plans of provincial and territorial governments and the climate leadership, priorities, and goals of the Indigenous peoples of Canada.   Modelling for the NDC indicates that GHG emissions are anticipated to decline to 401 to 438 Mt CO2e by 2030. Further reductions are to be achieved with the adoption of innovative technologies such as zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), industrial electrification, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and hydrogen. The NDC makes clear that Canada is committed to a just transition to a net-zero economy (read our earlier bulletin on the Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act here) through economic diversification and support for workers with skills training, education, accreditation, and ensuring equitable access to opportunities for underrepresented individuals and groups. For further information or to discuss the contents of this bulletin, please contact Lisa DeMarco at lisa@resilientllp.com.

The Ecosystem Marketplace, an initiative of Forest Trends, in collaboration with the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility of the World Bank, yesterday released its report on the state of forest carbon finance in 2021 titled “A Green Growth Spurt: State of Forest Carbon Finance 2021” (the Report). The Report indicates that forest carbon financing remains inadequate to support increased climate ambition and counter global deforestation, noting that 23% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions are a result of the inefficient and destructive use of forests, farms, and fields. This bulletin summarizes the Report’s key findings:   Funding for forests. Funding for forests through carbon markets and results-based payments for REDD+ has more than doubled since 2017, including $5.9 billion to forest carbon offset projects and an additional $1.3 billion for “REDD+ readiness” in developing countries.    Compliance-driven forest carbon markets. Compliance carbon markets have provided over $3.9 billion to forests and sustainable land use. This is expected to further increase as a result of new compliance mechanisms such as CORSIA and the still-to-be-finalized markets provisions under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.   Natural climate solutions. From 2017-2019, approximately $400 million was generated in transactions through global voluntary carbon markets (VCM), representing 105 MtCO2e of carbon credits from forest and land use natural climate solutions (NCS), as well as generating an overall transaction value of over $1 billion in demand for NCS offsets.     Voluntary carbon markets. The Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM) estimates that VCMs must grow 15-fold by 2030 and 100-fold by 2050 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (read our earlier bulletins on the TSVCM here and here). The Report notes that most forest carbon offset buyers in VCMs are concentrated in Europe and the US, with companies in France and the UK accounting for almost a third of all offsets purchased in 2019.  …

Bill C-12, the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, (the NZ Bill) passed third reading in the House of Commons late yesterday evening. The NZ Bill was introduced last November, and if enacted will require national targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050. This bulletin provides a brief overview of the NZ Bill and next steps:   Emissions reduction targets and plans. The NZ Bill provides for emissions reduction targets to be set by the Minister of Environment and Climate Change (the Minister) every five years, starting in 2030. The Minister must also establish an emissions reduction plan for each milestone year, indicating how Canada will meet the corresponding target. Each plan must also, inter alia, provide a description of relevant sectoral strategies, how international commitments are taken into account, and emissions reduction strategies for federal government operations; and provide projections of annual GHG emission reductions for each economic sector that Canada includes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.  Net-Zero Advisory Board. The NZ Bill would establish the Advisory Board to provide independent advice to the Minister on achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and each five-year milestone. The Advisory Board will provide advice on GHG emissions targets; GHG emissions reduction plan, including measure and sectoral strategies that the government could implement to achieve GHG emissions targets; and any other matter referred to it by the Minister. The Advisory Board is to be composed of members with expertise in, or knowledge of climate change science; Indigenous knowledge; relevant physical and social sciences; climate change and climate policy at the national, subnational, and international levels; energy supply and demands; and relevant technologies. Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development. At least every five years, the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development will be required to examine and report on the government’s implementation of measures to…