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The United States today submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (“NDC”) under the Paris Agreement to the UN Climate Change secretariat. The updated NDC sets an economy-wide target of reducing net greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions by 61-66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035 (the “Target”). The Target increases ambition from the previous target of 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, and provides a pathway to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025, is widely expected to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on the first day of his new administration. Many observers are consequently treating the new NDC as mostly symbolic. See our earlier analysis on U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement here.   This bulletin briefly summarizes key details of the NDC and the Biden-Harris Administration’s Fact Sheet on the Target.   Net-zero by 2050. The Target aligns with President Joe Biden’s goal of a net zero GHG economy no later than 2050, with the 61-66% range on a “straight line or steeper trajectory to net zero emissions by 2050 for all greenhouse gases.”   Article 6. The NDC is very light on international cooperation through now-finalized rules of international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Notably, however, the new NDC omits language included in the last U.S. NDC, which indicated that the U.S. did “not intend to use voluntary cooperation using cooperative approaches referred to in Article 6.2 or the mechanism referred to in Article 6.4 in order to achieve its target.”   Methane and other emissions. The updated NDC does not set sub-targets for individual GHGs; however, as part of achieving the Target, it is anticipated that methane emissions will also be reduced by at least 35% from 2005 levels by 2035. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) provides…

Canada yesterday filed its update to its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat. The updated NDC commits Canada to reduce GHG emissions by its previously announced target of 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Canada’s emissions reduction ambitions under the NDC are supported by the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change and Canada’s strengthened climate plan: A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy (read our earlier bulletin on the plan here) as well as the various climate plans of provincial and territorial governments and the climate leadership, priorities, and goals of the Indigenous peoples of Canada.   Modelling for the NDC indicates that GHG emissions are anticipated to decline to 401 to 438 Mt CO2e by 2030. Further reductions are to be achieved with the adoption of innovative technologies such as zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), industrial electrification, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and hydrogen. The NDC makes clear that Canada is committed to a just transition to a net-zero economy (read our earlier bulletin on the Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act here) through economic diversification and support for workers with skills training, education, accreditation, and ensuring equitable access to opportunities for underrepresented individuals and groups. For further information or to discuss the contents of this bulletin, please contact Lisa DeMarco at lisa@resilientllp.com.