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IPCC Finalizes Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announced the finalization of its Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) during its 58th Session held in Interlaken, Switzerland, March 13-19, 2023. The IPCC also published a Summary for Policymakers (the Summary) in advance of the release of the Synthesis Report, as well as a Longer Report and a Presentation. The Synthesis Report integrates the main findings of the AR6 and provides an overview of the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Synthesis Report has been highly anticipated and is the last of the Sixth Assessment Report products, due for release in time to inform the 2023 Global Stocktake under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It provides an unprecedented level of scientific analysis and indicates that there are numerous, feasible, and effective options currently available to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change. Media reports from the New York Times emphasized that the Earth is likely to cross a critical global warming threshold by 2030 without rapid and drastic reductions in global GHG emissions. Reuters, quoting from the Summary, noted that “there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all”. This bulletin briefly highlights key findings of the Synthesis Report included in the Summary. The Summary is divided into the following three sections: Current Status and Trends, which covers the historical and present period.  Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, which addresses projected futures up to 2100 and beyond. Responses in the Near Term, which considers current international policy timeframes, and the time interval between now and 2030-2040. Current Status and Trends. The Summary notes that: Human activities, principally through emissions of GHGs have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020,…

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IPCC Releases Highly Anticipated Mitigation Report

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has released its final installment of the Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group III’s report on the global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges “Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change” (the Report). It also released an accompanying Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary. The Report considers and documents the scientific, technological, environmental, economic, and social aspects of mitigation of climate change and notes the growing role of non-state and sub-national actors including cities, businesses, Indigenous Peoples, citizens, transnational initiatives, and public-private entities in addressing the impacts and causes of climate change. The Report has been highly anticipated and is the first mitigation report that the IPCC has published since 2014. It provides an unprecedented level of scientific analysis on the options to mitigate climate change, including a significant focus on carbon dioxide removals and the costs of emissions reductions. This bulletin briefly highlights key findings of the Report. Recent developments and current trends. The Report notes that: Total greenhouse (GHG) emissions continued to rise during the period 2010–2019, largely attributed to urban areas, and that the average annual GHG emissions during 2010–2019 were higher than in any previous decade. Reduced emissions from industrial processes and fossil fuels have been more than offset by increased emissions from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture, and buildings. Global GHG emissions in 2030 associated with the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced prior to COP26 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during this century. Policy, cost, deployment of low-emission technologies and finance. The Report notes that: The cost of low-emission technologies such as photovoltaics, onshore and offshore wind, concentrating solar power, and batteries for passenger electric vehicles (EVs) has continued to decrease since 2010, as demonstrated by an over…

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IPCC Releases Report Indicating Global Temperature Rise to Exceed 1.5-2ºC

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) yesterday released the IPCC Working Group 1 report, “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis” (the Report), part of the Sixth Assessment Report, providing an updated assessment of the physical understanding of the current state of the climate system and climate change. The Report predicts that global temperatures are likely to continue to increase beyond the 1.5-2°C target of the Paris Agreement without widespread and steep global reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This bulletin summarizes the Report’s key findings. The current state of the climate. The Report reiterates that the warming of the atmosphere, oceans, and land are human-caused, with rapid changes being observed in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere. In addition, the Report confirms that anthropogenic climate change is globally affecting weather and climate extremes, with increased heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones more readily attributed to human influence. Possible climate futures. According to the Report, under all emissions scenarios, global surface temperatures will continue to increase until mid-century, with temperatures predicted to exceed 1.5-2°C this century without deep reductions of GHGs. As the climate warms, changes in climate systems will become larger, increasing the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, intensity of tropical cyclones, and reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and permafrost. The Report indicates that changes in the ocean, ice sheets, and global sea levels, resulting from past and future GHG emissions, will likely be irreversible for hundreds of years. Climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation. The Report indicates that all regions are expected to increasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climatic impact-drivers amplified at 2°C compared to 1.5°C, with greater increases at even higher global temperatures. The Report also indicates that even “low-likelihood” outcomes such as…

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