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UNEP Releases Report on Pathways for Limiting Global Temperature Overshoot

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The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) yesterday published a new report, Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return (the Report), examining the implications of exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. The Report notes that global warming is now projected to reach at least 1.8°C and argues that climate policy must increasingly address not only whether 1.5°C is exceeded, but by how much and for how long. UNEP indicated that limiting the overshoot and peak, while pursuing pathways capable of bringing temperatures back down, will be critical to reducing climate risks and preserving future options for adaptation. This bulletin briefly summarizes the following key findings and pathways to respond to the global temperature overshoot set out in the Report: Overshoot is a pathway, not a moment. UNEP describes an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the best remaining option to return global temperatures to or below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The pathway depends on minimizing peak warming through rapid and sustained greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, reaching net-zero, and ultimately achieving net-negative emissions. The Report notes that lower peak warming and a shorter period above 1.5°C would reduce climate risks and impacts and improve the prospects of bringing temperatures back down. Going above 1.5°C must not mean abandoning the goal. UNEP states that global temperature rise is likely to cross 1.5°C within the next few years and that there are “no good outcomes” from remaining above that level. Risks intensify with every fraction of a degree and include more severe extreme weather, damage to food and water systems, ecosystem loss, and the possibility of crossing difficult or irreversible tipping points. Adaptation and mitigation must happen hand-in-hand. The Report emphasizes that mitigation and adaptation are interconnected and must advance together. Weak mitigation will increase climate impacts and adaptation needs,…

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U.S. Submits New NDC Setting Emission Reduction Target of 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035

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The United States today submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (“NDC”) under the Paris Agreement to the UN Climate Change secretariat. The updated NDC sets an economy-wide target of reducing net greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions by 61-66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035 (the “Target”). The Target increases ambition from the previous target of 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, and provides a pathway to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025, is widely expected to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on the first day of his new administration. Many observers are consequently treating the new NDC as mostly symbolic. See our earlier analysis on U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement here.   This bulletin briefly summarizes key details of the NDC and the Biden-Harris Administration’s Fact Sheet on the Target.   Net-zero by 2050. The Target aligns with President Joe Biden’s goal of a net zero GHG economy no later than 2050, with the 61-66% range on a “straight line or steeper trajectory to net zero emissions by 2050 for all greenhouse gases.”   Article 6. The NDC is very light on international cooperation through now-finalized rules of international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Notably, however, the new NDC omits language included in the last U.S. NDC, which indicated that the U.S. did “not intend to use voluntary cooperation using cooperative approaches referred to in Article 6.2 or the mechanism referred to in Article 6.4 in order to achieve its target.”   Methane and other emissions. The updated NDC does not set sub-targets for individual GHGs; however, as part of achieving the Target, it is anticipated that methane emissions will also be reduced by at least 35% from 2005 levels by 2035. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) provides…

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Ontario Launches Emissions Performance Program

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Ontario’s Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (the Ministry) recently launched the Emissions Performance Program (EPP). The EPP takes proceeds collected from the Emissions Performance Standards (EPS) Program (see our earlier bulletin here) and allows large emitters to apply for funding to support greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction projects at eligible industrial facilities. The EPP aims to support covered industrial facilities to remain competitive and contribute to economic growth in Ontario. This bulletin briefly summarizes key details of the EPP. Overview. The EPP is a non-competitive program funded by compliance payments collected through the EPS. The EPP will fund capital and study-based projects. The available funds are derived from revenue collected through the purchase of compliance instruments, known as Excess Emissions Units (EEUs) under the EPS, by EPS participants to meet their compliance obligations. EPS participants eligible for the EPP can apply for a funding amount notionally equivalent to the amount they paid for EEUs. Eligible industrial facilities have been sent notification emails from the Ministry outlining their ‘notional allocation amount’ which is the maximum amount of funding they are eligible to receive. Eligibility and eligible projects. Facilities eligible for the EPP: (i) are registered in the EPS Program; (ii) have purchased EEUs; and (iii) do not generate electricity as their primary industrial activity. Examples of project activities eligible for funding include, among others: stationary equipment retrofits for energy efficiency and fuel switching; mobile equipment retrofits for energy efficiency and fuel switching; building envelope upgrades (insulation, windows, doors); heat recovery; industrial process changes; carbon capture and storage; and clean electricity and low-carbon fuel production for own use. Application for funds. Eligible applicants may apply for funding by submitting a project proposal through the Transfer Payment Ontario (TPON) portal, where EPP materials are available to organizations with a TPON account. Eligible…

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G7 Climate, Energy, and Environment Ministers Commit to Urgent Action on Climate Change

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The Group of Seven (G7) recently published the Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting Communiqué following the G7 Ministers’ Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment held last week in Turin, Italy. This marked the first meeting of G7 climate, energy and environment ministers (the Ministers) since COP28 last November and included renewed commitments on strengthening energy security, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C, and the imperative of transitioning to cleaner energy sources for economic growth and climate resilience. We view the Ministers’ renewed dedication to energy transition as the meeting’s most significant outcome, although it is important to note that countries heavily reliant on coal maintain some degree of flexibility. This bulletin briefly highlights key commitments made by the Ministers. Carbon Markets. Key carbon market commitments include: work jointly towards delivering robust outcomes from the Work Programme on Article 6 at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan later this year; explore innovative options for carbon markets and carbon pricing to contribute to mobilizing public and private contributions to climate finance; and  enhance demand and robust certification standards for carbon dioxide removals.  Energy. Key energy commitments include: phase out existing unabated coal power generation in energy systems during the first half of 2030s or in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with national net-zero pathways; setting a global target of reaching 1,500 GW of energy storage in the electricity sector by 2030, six times more than in 2022;  reduce demand for and use of fossil fuels, including by rapidly scaling-up clean technologies in power generation, transportation and other end users; and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, with all countries committing to a progress report in 2025, when Canada will have the Presidency of the G7 (read our earlier bulletin on Canada’s inefficient…

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SEC Adopts Climate-Related Disclosure Rules

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) today adopted final rules for the “Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors” (the Rules). The Rules require registrants to disclose climate-related risks that have had, or are reasonably likely to have, a material impact on business strategy, results of operations, or financial condition, together with their associated actual or potential material impacts. The Rules do not require reporting on Scope 3 emissions or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating in a registrant’s value chains or outside of its direct operations (as was proposed in earlier versions – see our earlier bulletin here). The Rules notably require more disclosure from registrants on capitalized costs, expenditures expensed, and losses related to material use of carbon credits. Disclosure requirements will be phased-in between 2025-2033, with compliance dates dependent on the type of registrant. The SEC also published a fact sheet alongside today’s release. This bulletin briefly summarizes key details of the Rules. Content of the disclosures. The Rules will require a registrant to disclose, among other things: Strategy. The Rules require disclosure of the following strategy-related climate risks and impacts: actual and potential material impacts of any identified climate-related risks on the registrant’s strategy, business model, and outlook; if, as part of its strategy, a registrant has undertaken activities to mitigate or adapt to a material climate-related risk or has adopted a transition plan to manage material risks, a quantitative and qualitative description of material expenditures incurred and material impacts on financial estimates and assumptions that directly result from such mitigation or adaptation activities; and specified disclosures regarding a registrant’s activities, if any, to mitigate or adapt to a material climate-related risk including the use, if any, of transition plans, scenario analysis, or internal carbon prices. Risk management. The Rules require disclosure of a registrant’s climate-related risk management, including: any oversight…

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