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IPCC Finalizes Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announced the finalization of its Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) during its 58th Session held in Interlaken, Switzerland, March 13-19, 2023. The IPCC also published a Summary for Policymakers (the Summary) in advance of the release of the Synthesis Report, as well as a Longer Report and a Presentation. The Synthesis Report integrates the main findings of the AR6 and provides an overview of the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Synthesis Report has been highly anticipated and is the last of the Sixth Assessment Report products, due for release in time to inform the 2023 Global Stocktake under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It provides an unprecedented level of scientific analysis and indicates that there are numerous, feasible, and effective options currently available to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change. Media reports from the New York Times emphasized that the Earth is likely to cross a critical global warming threshold by 2030 without rapid and drastic reductions in global GHG emissions. Reuters, quoting from the Summary, noted that “there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all”. This bulletin briefly highlights key findings of the Synthesis Report included in the Summary. The Summary is divided into the following three sections: Current Status and Trends, which covers the historical and present period.  Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, which addresses projected futures up to 2100 and beyond. Responses in the Near Term, which considers current international policy timeframes, and the time interval between now and 2030-2040. Current Status and Trends. The Summary notes that: Human activities, principally through emissions of GHGs have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020,…

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IPCC Releases Highly Anticipated Mitigation Report

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has released its final installment of the Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group III’s report on the global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges “Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change” (the Report). It also released an accompanying Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary. The Report considers and documents the scientific, technological, environmental, economic, and social aspects of mitigation of climate change and notes the growing role of non-state and sub-national actors including cities, businesses, Indigenous Peoples, citizens, transnational initiatives, and public-private entities in addressing the impacts and causes of climate change. The Report has been highly anticipated and is the first mitigation report that the IPCC has published since 2014. It provides an unprecedented level of scientific analysis on the options to mitigate climate change, including a significant focus on carbon dioxide removals and the costs of emissions reductions. This bulletin briefly highlights key findings of the Report. Recent developments and current trends. The Report notes that: Total greenhouse (GHG) emissions continued to rise during the period 2010–2019, largely attributed to urban areas, and that the average annual GHG emissions during 2010–2019 were higher than in any previous decade. Reduced emissions from industrial processes and fossil fuels have been more than offset by increased emissions from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture, and buildings. Global GHG emissions in 2030 associated with the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced prior to COP26 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during this century. Policy, cost, deployment of low-emission technologies and finance. The Report notes that: The cost of low-emission technologies such as photovoltaics, onshore and offshore wind, concentrating solar power, and batteries for passenger electric vehicles (EVs) has continued to decrease since 2010, as demonstrated by an over…

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Canada Releases 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan

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Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) today released the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (the Plan) under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act (the Act; read our earlier bulletin on the Act here). The Plan sets out current actions, additional funding of $9.1B, and several new initiatives to meet Canada’s emissions reduction target of 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, as provided last year in an update to Canada’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement (read our earlier bulletin on Canada’s updated NDC targets here).   The Plan also sets a new interim objective of reducing GHGs by 20% below 2005 levels by 2026, noting that this interim objective is not an official target akin to Canada’s 2030 NDC, but that progress towards achieving the objective will be a cornerstone of progress reports associated with the Plan in 2023, 2025, and 2027.   This bulletin highlights key parts of the Plan and summarizes the newly announced funding and initiatives, across the following categories: Carbon pricing Clean fuels Clean growth funding Methane Buildings Electricity Heavy industry Oil and gas Transportation Agriculture Waste Nature-based solutions Clean technology and climate innovation Sustainable finance Jobs, skills, and communities Prime Minister Justin Trudeau launched the Plan in an address at the GLOBE Forum in Vancouver earlier today.  Carbon pricing. The Plan notes the measures undertaken to address economy-wide emissions including the federal fuel charge and the Output-Based Pricing System for industrial emitters under the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act. Escalating the federal benchmark price to $170 by 2030 is meant to further support the 2030 targets of the federal government along with continued consultations on a possible border carbon adjustment (read our earlier bulletin here). Very significantly, the Plan puts forward the concept of investment approaches, like carbon contracts for differences, which enshrine future price levels in contracts between the federal government and low-carbon…

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U.S. Judge Cites Climate Change in Cancelling Oil and Gas Leases

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A federal judge of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia has cancelled oil and gas leases of 80.8 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico, citing inadequate environmental assessments of the impact of GHG emissions on climate change. The judge determined that the Interior Department “acted arbitrarily and capriciously in excluding foreign consumption from their [GHG] emissions calculations” contrary to requirements under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).  Environmental groups claimed the NEPA analysis performed by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management was irrational and inconsistent with available data in determining that the GHG emissions associated with the lease sale would be lower and not contribute to climate change compared to a no-action scenario. The Interior Department must now conduct new analysis taking into account GHG emissions resulting from the development and production of the leases, including the associated emissions from foreign consumption. The Interior Department must then consider the new analysis in determining whether to hold a new auction for the cancelled leases.  President Biden, during his campaign for office, had stated that there would be no new drilling for oil and gas on federal lands and signed an Executive Order to that effect early last year. However, Attorneys General from 13 states successfully sued to have previously planned auctions from the Trump Administration go forward, with major oil companies including Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon Mobile bidding $192M for the now cancelled drilling rights.  For further information or to discuss the contents of this bulletin, please contact Lisa DeMarco at lisa@resilientllp.com.

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Peoples Forests Partnership Aims to Mobilize $20B Per Year to Indigenous Conservation Projects

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The recently launched Peoples Forests Partnership (the Partnership), aims to secure commitments to mobilize $20 billion per year by 2030 to Indigenous Peoples, traditional owners, and local communities (IPLCs) for community-based tropical forest conservation and restoration projects in the Global South. Facilitating members of the Partnership include Forest Trends, RECOFTC, Wildlife Works Carbon, Everland, and Green Collar. This Partnership could help reduce 2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions from deforestation each year, protect 500 million hectares of threatened tropical forest, and support livelihoods and bioeconomy development for over 50 million people in forest communities.    The Partnership was launched last year during the COP 26 conference in Glasgow, following an announcement of funding of $1.7B for IPLCs pledged by Norway, UK, US, Germany, and the Netherlands. The funding, to be provided through 2025, will support the capacity of IPLCs to govern themselves collectively, assist with mapping and registration work, back national land reform, and help resolve conflict over territories.   The Partnership will support performance-based payments, such as carbon credits, and other climate funding mechanisms, including a financing facility specifically focused on strengthening territorial governance to be managed by Forest Trends. The Partnership is organized around two governing principles (i) forest communities are essential conservation partners; and (ii) community-based, values-driven climate and conservation finance projects have the potential to create a future with forests that aligns with forest community rights to their territories, economic self-determination, and cultural traditions.   Facilitating members represent a collective portfolio that includes: over 250,000 Indigenous and other forest community members receiving direct market finance in recognition for protecting forests; ​over 2 million hectares of tropical forests with active climate finance projects; financing already in place for a portfolio of community-based forest conservation projects that will deploy $2 billion in private investment and stop 200 million tonnes of deforestation emissions…

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