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UNEP Releases Report on Pathways for Limiting Global Temperature Overshoot

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The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) yesterday published a new report, Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return (the Report), examining the implications of exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. The Report notes that global warming is now projected to reach at least 1.8°C and argues that climate policy must increasingly address not only whether 1.5°C is exceeded, but by how much and for how long. UNEP indicated that limiting the overshoot and peak, while pursuing pathways capable of bringing temperatures back down, will be critical to reducing climate risks and preserving future options for adaptation. This bulletin briefly summarizes the following key findings and pathways to respond to the global temperature overshoot set out in the Report: Overshoot is a pathway, not a moment. UNEP describes an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the best remaining option to return global temperatures to or below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The pathway depends on minimizing peak warming through rapid and sustained greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, reaching net-zero, and ultimately achieving net-negative emissions. The Report notes that lower peak warming and a shorter period above 1.5°C would reduce climate risks and impacts and improve the prospects of bringing temperatures back down. Going above 1.5°C must not mean abandoning the goal. UNEP states that global temperature rise is likely to cross 1.5°C within the next few years and that there are “no good outcomes” from remaining above that level. Risks intensify with every fraction of a degree and include more severe extreme weather, damage to food and water systems, ecosystem loss, and the possibility of crossing difficult or irreversible tipping points. Adaptation and mitigation must happen hand-in-hand. The Report emphasizes that mitigation and adaptation are interconnected and must advance together. Weak mitigation will increase climate impacts and adaptation needs,…

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EPA to Rescind 2009 GHG Endangerment Finding

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) yesterday announced its intent to rescind the 2009 Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Finding for Greenhouse Gases (the Finding) later this week. The Finding, issued under the Clean Air Act (the Act) and preceded by confirmation of the EPA’s regulatory authority by the U.S. Supreme Court in a landmark 2007 decision, has served as the legal foundation for almost all climate regulations under the Act, including auto standards. Once rescinded, the EPA is expected to repeal all GHG emission standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles and engines. The EPA previously indicated that engine and vehicle manufacturers would no longer have any future obligations for the measurement, control, and reporting of GHG emissions for any highway engine and vehicle. The EPA has stated, however, that it would maintain regulations necessary for criteria pollutant and air toxic measurement and standards, Corporate Average Fuel Economy testing, and associated fuel economy labeling requirements. Background. On December 7, 2009, the Obama Administration signed two distinct findings regarding GHGs under section 202(a) of the Act: Endangerment Finding. Current and projected concentrations of the six key well-mixed greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) – in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. Cause or Contribute Finding. The combined emissions of the well-mixed GHGs from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the GHG pollution that threatens public health and welfare. On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order directing the EPA to submit recommendations regarding the legality and continuing applicability of the Finding. Following that directive, the EPA announced last summer that it was reconsidering the Finding, culminating in this week’s anticipated formal rescinding of the Finding.   For further information or to discuss the contents…

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International Court of Justice Releases Landmark Climate Change Opinion

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The International Court of Justice (ICJ) today released its unanimous advisory opinion on obligations of States in respect of climate change (the Advisory Opinion). The Advisory Opinion, delivered by Judge Yuji Iwasawa and non-binding, determined that States may face legal consequences under international law for failing to meet their obligations to address climate change and protect the environment. This bulletin briefly summarizes background information, key findings of the Advisory Opinion, and highlights from separate opinions of ICJ judges delivered alongside the Advisory Opinion. Background. On 29 March 2023, the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted a resolution requesting the ICJ to give an advisory opinion on the following questions: (a) What are the obligations of States under international law to ensure the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) for States and for present and future generations? (b) What are the legal consequences under these obligations for States where they, by their acts and omissions, have caused significant harm to the climate system and other parts of the environment, with respect to: (i) States, including, in particular, small island developing States, which due to their geographical circumstances and level of development, are injured or specially affected by or are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change? (ii) Peoples and individuals of the present and future generations affected by the adverse effects of climate change? Key findings. Key findings of the Advisory Opinion in response to question (a) include: International climate change treaties, including the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kyoto Protocol (KP) and the Paris Agreement (PA), set forth binding obligations for States parties to ensure the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic GHG emissions. Customary international law sets forth obligations for States to ensure the…

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G7 Climate, Energy, and Environment Ministers Commit to Urgent Action on Climate Change

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The Group of Seven (G7) recently published the Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting Communiqué following the G7 Ministers’ Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment held last week in Turin, Italy. This marked the first meeting of G7 climate, energy and environment ministers (the Ministers) since COP28 last November and included renewed commitments on strengthening energy security, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C, and the imperative of transitioning to cleaner energy sources for economic growth and climate resilience. We view the Ministers’ renewed dedication to energy transition as the meeting’s most significant outcome, although it is important to note that countries heavily reliant on coal maintain some degree of flexibility. This bulletin briefly highlights key commitments made by the Ministers. Carbon Markets. Key carbon market commitments include: work jointly towards delivering robust outcomes from the Work Programme on Article 6 at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan later this year; explore innovative options for carbon markets and carbon pricing to contribute to mobilizing public and private contributions to climate finance; and  enhance demand and robust certification standards for carbon dioxide removals.  Energy. Key energy commitments include: phase out existing unabated coal power generation in energy systems during the first half of 2030s or in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with national net-zero pathways; setting a global target of reaching 1,500 GW of energy storage in the electricity sector by 2030, six times more than in 2022;  reduce demand for and use of fossil fuels, including by rapidly scaling-up clean technologies in power generation, transportation and other end users; and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, with all countries committing to a progress report in 2025, when Canada will have the Presidency of the G7 (read our earlier bulletin on Canada’s inefficient…

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Dutch Court Rules KLM Misled Customers and Engaged in Greenwashing

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The District Court of Amsterdam (the Court) recently released its decision on alleged ‘greenwashing’ claims against Dutch airline KLM (the Decision). The Court found that 15 of the 19 impugned KLM advertising statements and environmental claims were unlawful and misleading to consumers. Specifically, the Court held that it was misleading and unlawful for KLM to make advertising statements suggesting that (i) flying can be or become sustainable, and (ii) the purchase of or contribution to a “compensation” product actually reduces, absorbs or compensates for part of the climate impact of flying. This bulletin briefly summarizes the background of the case and important aspects and implications of the Decision. Background. Dutch environmental groups Fossielvrij Netherlands (Fossil Free Netherlands) and Reclame Fossielvrij (Fossil Free Advertising) (together, FF), supported by ClientEarth, an international environmental advocacy organization, delivered a letter to KLM in May 2022 stating their intention to file a legal claim if their demands, including calling for a ban on all fossil fuel advertising in the EU, were not met. FF and ClientEarth indicated that they were targeting KLM’s ‘Fly Responsibly’ ad campaign and the airline’s offers for customers to purchase carbon offsets to fund reforestation projects or the purchase of biofuels to offset the emissions from a customer’s flight. FF filed a ‘greenwashing’ lawsuit against KLM in July 2022, alleging that the airline’s climate-related advertising misled the public and challenging KLM’s carbon offsetting marketing, which purported to allow customers to reduce the carbon impacts of their flights by supporting reforestation projects or the purchase of small quantities of biofuels and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Court’s Findings and Decision. The Court considered 19 statements made by KLM in connection with its ‘Fly Responsibly’ and ‘CO2ZERO’ marketing campaigns and ‘KLM Real Deal Days’ promotion campaign under the Dutch Unfair Commercial Practices Act and…

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